If It Can Be Broke Then It Can Be Fixed

Aaaaaaaaaaaand we're back.

Fantastic win for the Caps on New Years Day... great team effort, excellent goaltending. Great to see Varlamov put a little streak together here... Three straight wins, three goals against, timely saves, nary a soft goal to be seen, and he's the NHL Player of the Week. That'll do. Furthermore, he and Neuvirth have finally, for the time being anyway, found a way to both be healthy and play well at the same time. Eventually, one of them needs to take the job from the other, because goaltending platoons do not win Stanley Cups. But that can wait till March. For now, having two healthy and focused guys is a luxury. In the meantime, though, I want to get big picture about the Boudreau-led traptastic evolution of the Caps we've heard so much about during the eight game skid and on 24/7. Yes, on the surface it makes sense. Yes, of course you have to play sound defensive hockey to win the Stanley Cup.

But no, defense alone does not win championships. So I'm just going to say it: I think changing to a more defensive-oriented system is a bad idea. *

Well, that's not the whole story. It's not a bad idea, per se, but I think it shines a spotlight on the wrong things. Because the more I watch this team, and the more I look back on the playoffs in 2008-09 and 2009-10, the more I think the offense was and is the real problem. Specifically, I think the current offense is one-dimensional and streaky, and has proven to be as much in the playoffs these past two seasons.

"But everyone knows that defense wins championships," you say. True....to a point. Like it or not, you need to score, too. The average playoff rank (based on GAA out of the 16 playoff teams) of the ten teams to play in the Stanley Cup Finals since the lockout is 3.10. The average rank of those ten teams on offense, based on goals for? Also 3.10. So you have to have both your offense and defense clicking to get it done. The Caps haven't done enough on either side, finishing sixth in playoff goals per game in both '09 and '10, and seventh and eighth, respectively, in playoff GAA.

"Something has to give though...10-11 in 21 playoff games isn't getting it done." Fine. But before we rush to judgment, let's break down the Caps' 21 playoff games over the last two seasons a little further. When Washington gave up two or fewer goals, their record was 5-4. When they give up 3+, they were 5-7. Makes sense...fewer goals against equals more wins, although not drastically more. Now how about when they score 3+... they're 9-3. When they score 2 or fewer, they're an eye-catching 1-8. 1-8! Furthermore, the average playoff game over the last two seasons has had roughly 5.73 total goals, which means more often than not, you need to score three goals to win. Which we now know, because the Caps are 1-8 when they're scoring fewer than three goals per game.

"Well, but they need to be able to hold a lead when they get it," you say. I agree, but that hasn't been their problem. They're 4-1 over their last three playoff series when leading after two, and they're 8-2 over that stretch when they have the lead at any point in the third period. So holding leads isn't their problem. Getting leads is. In fact, the most surprising stat I came across was this: In those 21 playoff games, the Caps have only led 5 times going into the third. They've been tied seven times (and were 5-2 in those games), and trailed 9 times.

So what are the lessons here for a winning playoff formula? Score some goals, and get the lead. Improve the power play, which looks run-of-the-mill this year, especially given the talent of the first unit, and was unfathomably bad in that series against Montreal last year (going an anemic, pathetic, unforgivable 1-33). Anyone who saw games 5,6, and 7 last spring knows they need to find ways to score gritty, ugly, hard-working goals. Does instilling a more defensive philosophy indirectly instill a grittier offensive identity? Maybe. But now we're getting into the problem of square pegs and round holes... the first two lines are crafted to play a certain way, with a premium on speed and skill, and changing the philosophy does not change the roster. Furthermore, this is primarily a change to how the Caps play 5v5, when they've been very good 5v5 in the last two playoffs seasons. In fact, their 5v5 for/against ratio was 1.31 in 2010, 4th out of 16 (and better than both Philly and Chicago), and 1.17 in 2009, good for 3rd best in the playoffs. Do I think the Caps can run and gun their way to the Stanley Cup? No. But I think, if BB and company are going to instill a new attitude, they should start in the offensive zone, because that's where the real problems are.

*I'm sure I'm not the first person to offer this opinion. But I'm compelled to explain why, anyway.

A Net for Catching Days

"A schedule defends from chaos and whim. It is a net for catching days. It is a scaffolding on which a worker can stand and labor with both hands at sections of time."
-Annie Dillard


Hats off again to Michal Neuvirth, who battled through a less than perfect performance last night to get a big win over a talented and dangerous Tampa Bay team. That's four straight starts giving up 3+ goals for Neuvirth, and he and the team have managed to win all four. And anytime you can win four (well, six really) in a row giving up over three goals a game, you have to be happy with a) how much offensive support you're getting, and b) that your goalie is finding ways to win even though he's not playing as well as he can.

Some disconcerting trends continued last night though...two bad rebounds wound up in the back of the net, and he (and the team) not only gave up the first goal of the game again, they blew another third period lead. That has to stop. I said this was going to be a detail blog, and it will continue to be, but all wins count the same and Neuvirth now has 10 of them, one more than anyone else in the league. Can't scoff at that.

***

I've mentioned here how I'm not in love with the way Bruce Boudreau manages his goalies, so I'll offer up my opinion about how the rest of the month should probably look. This assumes that Varlamov gets 1-2 good rehab starts in Hershey over the next 5 days:

Sat, Nov 13 @ Buffalo: Neuvirth
Sun, Nov 14 vs Atlanta: Holtby
Wed, Nov 17 vs Buffalo: Neuvirth
Fri, Nov 19 @ Atlanta: Neuvirth
Sat, Nov 20 vs Philly: Varlamov
Mon, Nov 22 @ New Jersey: Neuvirth
Wed, Nov 24 @ Carolina: Neuvirth
Fri, Nov 26 vs Tampa Bay: Varlamov
Sun, Nov 28 vs Carolina: Neuvirth

The last four are sort of a crap shoot, but I have to figure Neuvirth gets three out of four there, and this way he doesn't play three in a row for the rest of the month. I'll revisit this as we go, but that's how I'd want it to play out if i was BB.

Breakdowns Come, and Breakdowns Go

I had every intention of writing part two of the "Michal Neuvirth needs a day off" series, but since he just had one, we'll save parts two and three for another time. And even though I watched every minute of last night's exceptional performance by Braden Holtby, several talented people have already offered their take on his performance in appropriate detail, so no need to talk about that just yet. But I did notice a trend today that needs to be addressed. More than one excellent blog (not to mention a few message boards) mentioned that Washington would be fine with Neuvirth and Holtby, and without Varlamov. Some even mentioned it might be the right time to trade young Semyon. Me personally, I think the idea of keeping Holtby with the Caps and trading Varlamov (or even sending him to Hershey for anything longer than a conditioning stint) is ludicrous.

For starters, for all anyone knows, Varlamov is not just the best chance to win this year but the best NHL goalie in the long run. I mean, it's certainly possible that he'll be an injury-riddled question mark for his whole career, but he's an undeniable talent with a strong early track record, and it's incredibly premature to write him off. Secondly, keeping Holtby with the Caps is the wrong thing for his growth. He needs games. Like 50 or more of them. He needs to spend a full season being a starter as a pro. He needs to continue to develop outside the pressure of a NHL media market, and without the weight of a legit Stanley Cup contender on his shoulders when he gets to play every fifth game. Keeping a 21-year-old in his second pro season as an NHL back-up, especially when you already have a pair of (much more) proven young goalies ahead of him, is crazy. Next problem: if we assume that Neuvirth is the Caps' best goalie this year (and bear in mind we're still not even 1/4 of the way into the season), we also have to remember he's never played as many as 60 games in a season before. So the Caps desperately need a reliable back-up goalie to play 25+ games and get them 15+ wins. If it has to be Holtby because of injury, then so be it, even though in that case you can bet the Caps would try to trade for a cheap veteran back-up without giving up much in return. And Holtby works fine in the short term, and even gives Varlamov a chance to have a rehab start or two in Hershey. But why willingly choose Holtby when you've got a guy in Varlamov who's proven he's got NHL talent and proven he can win at this level, at least as well as Neuvirth has. Lastly, even if you disagree with the three reasons above, right now you can't get more than 50 cents on the dollar for Varlamov anyway. Given Varly's injury history, the closest comp from a trade perspective is probably Kari Lehtonen, who is vastly talented but hasn't been able to stay healthy. When he was traded last summer as a 25 year old with 200+ NHL starts and 90+ NHL wins, the Thrashers picked up a 4th round pick and a forward prospect with five NHL games on his resume. Not the sort of trade haul that helps the Caps in the here and now.

Listen, I really like what I've seen of Holtby so far. All 71 minutes of him. He seems to have the requisite poise, he moves well, and handles the puck exponentially better than either of his counterparts. And I know many Caps' fans are sick of the "glass groin" and ready to move on at the first thought of something more stable. But cooler heads need to prevail when it comes to how to handle this triumvirate. Caps fans should realize that the best possible outcome is for Neuvirth to stay hot, Varlamov to stay healthy, and Holtby to stay in Hershey.

A Goalie Knows What a Goalie Shows...

First in a three-part series

"I told [goaltending coach Arturs Irbe] after the second period that Michal looks a little tired [Wednesday] and even though they only had one goal, I was a little worried about it."
-Bruce Boudreau, 11/03/2010

It makes sense that Michal Neuvirth would be feeling gassed given his yeoman's work thus far, but since he gets another start again tonight at home vs the Flyers [Ed. note: looks like it might be Holtby after all], we should wonder what exactly BB saw over the last two games (he mentioned fatigue again after Friday's circus act W over the Bruins). I'm guessing that people who pay particular attention to goaltending each have different ways to tell when a particular goalie is overworked. For me, I look for three signs: 1) going down too early (and staying down too long), 2) not working hard enough to see the puck through traffic, and 3) noticing when pucks seem to be finding their way through rather than around a goalie. And Neuvirth has been victimized by all three in the last two games. So let's take a look at problem #1, going down early and staying down too long.

It used to be, back before Francois Allaire and Patrick Roy combined to turn entire generations of goaltenders on to the butterfly, that the first hint of goalie fatigue was when they dropped to their knees (early and/or often) to make saves. I think the term most often associated with it was "flopping." It was a bad sign. Obviously that's not the case anymore...Neuvirth (and most goalies in the NHL circa 2010) goes down to his knees literally every time he faces a shot. Goalies spend more time on their knees than ever before, and in the last decade the idea of going down and staying down has evolved immensely, to the point where goalies now work hard on moving side to side after they've already dropped to the ice. And that's the evolution of goaltending in the last 30 years in a nutshell...from never going down, to rarely going down, to going down and getting right back up, and finally to going down and staying down. And that makes sense to a point. Let's say I go down to make the first save, and the rebound kicks a few feet to one side, into a dangerous area...it'll be faster to stay down and slide than it will be to get up, push off, and go back down to stop the rebound. So is it even possible for a modern NHL goalie to go down too soon? Oh, yes...

Cases in point: the first two goals Neuvirth gave up Wednesday night. On the first, Nikolai Kulemin steals the puck at the top of the slot just to Nuevirth's right. He moves toward the net and pulls the puck to the backhand to avoid John Erskine, and immediately Nuevirth is down. All Kulemin did was move the puck to his backhand! Now there was traffic in front, and a potential shot from a backhand from that spot would be very tough to read. But now Neuvirth's gotta keep moving right to left to stay with the shooter, and in his panic to keep pace he eventually over commits to his left. Kulemin pulls the puck back to his forehand, and Neuvirth cant shift his weight around to recover in time. 1-0 Leafs.



One the second goal, John Mitchell comes down the right wing and makes a nice move to the middle to buy some time and space. And again, Neuvirth is immediately down (it's hard to see that in the clip, but it's fairly obvious in the last replay shown from behind the net). He pushes right, eventually gets back up and moves over to get in position for Kaberle's shot, but he's late getting set and can't do anything but accept the screen in front. In the end it's a tough save to make anyway, but Neuvirth didn't do himself any favors with how he played the situation.



So, he's down waaaaaay too early on both goals, and that's signal #1 that he's tired. And incidentally, both times he went down early it was, at least in part, because there were bodies in front of him. Which brings us to telltale tired sign #2: how he dealt with traffic in front of him. But since this is getting long, we'll tackle that issue another time.

...So Many Miles From Home

I want to expand a point I made in yesterday's post, and in the process touch on the Caps', um, uninspiring loss last night in Minnesota. I'll preface this by saying it's obviously an easier point to make in hindsight...

I made a short plea yesterday to give Braden Holtby his first career start last night rather than Michal Neuvirth, who was coming off a dazzling 3-0 shutout. Bruce Boudreau went with Neuvirth. Which I understand, because it's the safe decision. Neuvirth's off to a terrific start in spite of some uneven play in front of him, and his effort Wednesday in Raleigh certainly warranted rewarding him with another start. And I know Washington played its most complete game of the young season against the Hurricanes, and BB can make the case for wanting to 1) reward Wednesday's excellent effort, and 2) keep building chemistry and consistency on a team beset by injury and inconsistency thus far. And I get that Neuvirth was all-world on the second night of back-to-back starts in the AHL. That's all well and good. But that awful performance last night against the Wild is exactly what I thought Boudreau might get, and could have avoided by starting Holtby.

Fans understand the unwritten rule that more often than not, the back-up goalie gets a start when a team plays on consecutive nights. Usually (but not always), he gets the second game. And the assumption is that it's done because it's a good excuse to rest your starter. Which is true. But it's not the only reason why it's done. Remember that the whole team is tired on the second night, not just the starting goaltender. More often than not you get 20 guys who are lethargic and out of sync, especially with back-to-back road games.

So now comes the dirty little secret: teams play better in front of their backup goalie. They play smarter, more responsibly. Have a greater sense of urgency. Exactly the sorts of ingredients that often go missing on night two of a back-to-back. On top of that, it would have been Holtby's first career start....call me crazy, but I think the guys in the locker room are less likely to phone it in when their goaltender is making his NHL debut. What's more, the worst thing that happens is you lose (which you did anyway), and now you've got a rested starting goalie for the big Saturday Night Special in Calgary, still with a chance to get four points from a tricky little three game road trip (which was really the most you could realistically hope for anyway).

Yes, there is a case to the contrary. But I believe BB missed an opportunity last night to squeeze a little something extra out of his team. Now we know he got another nice performance out of Neuvirth, but that wasn't enough to steal a point and the Wild didn't exactly melt the ice with the way they played. Maybe that little something extra would have been the difference.

The Men They Couldn't Hang

For hockey fans, the easiest way to evaluate goaltending is to treat it as a series of binary events. Either the puck goes in the net, or it doesn't. And there's something to be said for that school of thought in a results-oriented environment like the NHL. They are always stats like GAA and Save Percentage that are easy enough to compare and contrast, but as Mark Twain (and/or Benjamin Disreali) once wrote, "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." And any goalie will tell you that wins and losses are the only stats that really matter anyway. It's a basic concept, and it doesn't matter if you're watching your first hockey game or your 500th: the scoreboard isn't always fair, but it always tells the final truth.

And so it is that fans view goaltenders as ones and zeros. Goal, No Goal. Win, Loss. Comfort, Concern. Asset, Liability.

Except that goaltending is a detail business. And so this is a detail blog.

***

Last year the Washington Capitals finished the regular season with a record of 54 wins, 15 losses, and 13 overtime losses, good for 121 points and the Presidents Trophy as the NHL’s best regular season team.Then they got bounced in the first round by Montreal.But if you’re reading this, you know that already.Furthermore, you know that the Caps brought back essentially the same roster from 2009-2010, which makes sense given the year they had as a team.

But the goaltending….ah, the goaltending.Last year Jose Theodore led the team with 30 wins, and finished the season on a 20-0-4 run.Then he lasted roughly a game and a half in the playoffs before Semyon Varlamov took over and played just well enough to lose the series in seven. And now Theodore is gone, Michal Neuvirth is up from the AHL, and the best team in hockey is at the mercy of a pair of 22-year-old kids with a combined 73 career NHL games heading into the 2010-11 season.

Which brings us to why we’re here. I'm not a Caps fan per se, although I think they're a talented team and should be fun to watch more nights than not. I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen either goalie play. I am, however, a fan of goaltenders, having been one up through college, and I find the Caps goaltending situation too compelling not to follow closely. These guys don't need to be the best tandem in the NHL, but at some point one or both of them need to emerge as bona fide starters at this level. The point of this blog is to dive headlong into that evolution with the perspective of someone who knows the position but not the particular guys playing it, and maybe get a little nerdy about it. I'll watch as many games as I can with an eye not just on goals and saves, but also on decision-making, technique, patience, effort, consistency, and all the other details that matter at the NHL level.

Of course, not everyone considers goaltending a binary event, and this sort of study that may seem mundane at times, and even occasionally obvious. But with any luck, over the course of 82 games it might add extra insight into the season, the goaltenders, and the way people watch the position. Thanks for stopping by…